Posts on what we actually think.
Essays on conformal prediction, social inflation, and where generative AI helps and where it doesn't. Written by the team.
Stop Anchoring Reserves to Headline Verdicts
A plaintiff attorney attaches a news clipping of an eight-figure verdict to a demand letter, and claims teams instinctively spike the reserve. This reaction traps capital, guarantees over-litigation, and fundamentally misprices risk.
Building Forecasts When Comparables Report Verdicts
Legal analytics tools often fail because they treat public jury awards as ground-truth prices. Building a reliable claims forecasting system requires isolating the selection bias of trials from the reality of private settlements.
Why Comparable Verdicts Overstate Settlement Exposure
Public trial verdicts are terrible predictors of settlement value. The data is systematically biased toward extreme disagreement, leading models and adjusters alike to radically over-reserve.
Reserving Under Social Inflation
Social inflation has broken traditional reserving methodologies. When claims teams rely on historical averages to set day-one reserves, they guarantee quarter-over-quarter volatility and misallocated defense spend.
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